Hurricane Earl Update 8-30-2010

Hurricane Earl is 1472 miles southeast of Charleston. This morning, Earl is tracking northwest at 15 knots. Earl’s winds are 90 knots and will be increasing to 115 knots during the next 24-36 hours. Earl is over very warm water, and free of the upper level shear entanglements from Hurricane Danielle (Hello Ireland!). Earl is showing robust outflow over all quadrants and cloud top temperatures are beginning to inch up above -80 degrees Celsius indicating deepening convection. Finding the eye is problematic with heavy central dense overcast but aircraft reconnaissance flights have pinned down the central circulation. These fixes have help stabilize the track forecast in all the models. There is excellent model consensus with regards to the recurving track forecast that changed little this weekend.

The forecast track of this major hurricane will be very uncomfortable as Earl tracks toward the State until Wednesday. On Wednesday Earl will begin a slow turn to the north and will become a problem for Cape Hatteras, then New England. This storm should build in some varsity breakers and rip currennts along the coast for the start of the Laor Day weekend.

A disorganized wave following Earl, 97L, has the potential to develop later this week. The models show this potential storm following in Earl’s wake. This would make intensification difficult over the cooler waters upwelled by Earl. A third undesignated wave has just rolled of the west coast of Africa.

The official National Hurricane Center Forecast (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov )track for Earl:

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202

Repost courtesy of The Charleston Angler.